|The Punter's Guide (Oct 22-23, 2011)|
|User Content - IBF Professors|
|Written by Deej Ratnani|
|Friday, 21 October 2011|
Bolton vs. Sunderland
Standard stuff here, as long as the Bolton high scoring games keep paying off, they’re always worth the investment. For added encouragement, Sunderland’s last 5 games have all been high scoring.
The payout for a high scoring game here is 1.85, great value again, I’m quite surprised the bookies haven’t picked up on this yet and lowered the odds.
Newcastle vs. Wigan
Well, my gut instinct about Newcastle being able to hold off Tottenham was correct, albeit just barely. I was under the impression that Adebayor and VDV would be out of contention, yet both made the starting lineup and gave the home side hell throughout the game, which actually makes it all the more impressive that the Magpies yet again maintained their undefeated start to the season.
Wigan have proven to be the complete opposite of Newcastle, with 6 straight losses, dating back to August. Losing against teams like Bolton at home, and Crystal Palace away, I don’t quite see any chance of them ending their streak at St. James’ Park.
Unfortunately the bookies clearly agree, hence the 1.57 payout for a Newcastle win. It’s not as much as I would have liked, but it probably is best payout you’ll find from all the one-sided fixtures this weekend. I didn’t notice this until looking at the recent results of Newcastle and Wigan, but both sides have had high scoring results in 4 out of their last 5 games. To add to this, both sides have scored AND conceded in practically every game of theirs this season. With a payout of 1.85, I would definitely consider betting on this to be a high scoring game as well.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City
The battle for the top of the table, the Manchester Derby, the match of the weekend! United at Old Trafford will be a difficult challenge for City, as always, but then again, there’s a reason why they’re at the top of the table. I am a little surprised to see United’s odds as low at 1.90 when City have been incredible, defensively and on the attack.
I’m sure a lot of us were surprised to see the amount of rotations that both managers made to their sides last week, no doubt with this fixture in mind, so I’ll be expecting to see both teams at maximum strength here. With regards to form, Manchester United have surprisingly been the more lackluster of the two, though they have had slightly tougher fixtures.
All in all, it seems like this could finish either way. I commented on the Liverpool-Man U game last week that there were too many variables to take into consideration to make a decisive pick, and I definitely feel the same about this game here. Seeing that City are getting a generous payout of 1.80 with a half a goal handicap, I would advise a bet on them to win or draw for the risk seeking punters. My logic here is that anything could happen, with a draw being most likely, and if you’re getting a 80% return for 2/3 of the possible outcomes, with the most likely included (in my opinion), then you’re definitely not losing out on value here.
Blackburn vs. Tottenham
Blackburn share the bottom of the table with Wigan, which is why it’s not very surprising that once again, I’m advising a bet on their opponents. The Rovers have pulled off just one win, oddly enough, against Arsenal, but have had very little to show for since then.
Tottenham had a miserable start to the season having lost to both Manchester teams, but have picked themselves up with victories against the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool. It was up to Newcastle to end their four win streak, but that should hardly slow down Tottenham.
The bookies have priced Tottenham @ 1.90 for a win, which is a pretty generous payout given the form of both of these teams. I would probably label this as the pick of the weekend in terms of likelihood and value, right after the wager on Newcastle. Good luck, and happy punting!